FINAL: NYM 1 — BAL 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 4.3 - BAL 3.6 (NYM at 61.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
NYM
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMBAL
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BAL W4NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.2% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 4.3 — BAL 3.6
Actual
NYM 1 — BAL 2
Pick Results
NYM MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%94 mph17% whiff
FS19%84 mph27% whiff
SL15%84 mph40% whiff
Jonah Tong R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph22% whiff
CH30%87 mph33% whiff
FC21%91 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
66°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.986
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.11ERA
3.76FIP
8.90K/9
3.66BB/9
1.31WHIP
NYM
4.43ERA
4.23FIP
9.42K/9
3.89BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-11.0% EV
+106
ML AWAY
-8.3% EV
+128
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-6.1% EV
-175
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-5.8% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+3.3% EV
+157
ML HOME
+2.8% EV
-139
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.0 runs
34.9% win
NYM F5
2.6 runs
48.6% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
53.7%
YRFI
46.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL27.8%
ISO: 0.248 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Jonah Tong | Park: 0.96x
Francisco Lindor NYM25.9%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Jonah Tong
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM5 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Both starters are back-end quality (Young 4.01 ERA actually better than Tong's 5.18 ERA), so NYM's home favorite status is purely a home-field premium correctly priced by the market -- no exploitable directional edge exists.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION CHECK: Tong 5.18 ERA is HIGHER than Young 4.01 ERA -- NYM has pitcher DISADVANTAGE despite being favored. Edge, if any, is home field only.
- historical support YELLOW: a supportive track record on 0-5% edge home favorites suggests model slightly overconfident here
- Wind blowing in (5.8 mph) at Citi Field suppresses run totals by ~0.2 runs, supporting fair market total of 8.0
- Model-market gap of only 1.7% implied probability is statistical noise, not a real signal
Risk Factors
- historical support data (a supportive track record) suggests this exact profile is a coin flip at best
- Both SPs are mediocre (4.01, 5.18 ERA) -- game likely decided by bullpen/lineup variance not pitching
- Pete Alonso narrative return adds emotional variance but no quantifiable betting edge
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 61.6%
+3.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.3 pts
Total
8.0
+0.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.