FINAL: TOR 5 — DET 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.1 - DET 4.1 (TOR at 51.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
TOR
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
DET
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORDET
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.1 — DET 4.1
Actual
TOR 5 — DET 6
Pick Results
DET MLmlWIN+0.59u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Troy Melton R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%96 mph16% whiff
FC22%92 mph18% whiff
SL17%87 mph33% whiff
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%96 mph17% whiff
KC25%85 mph40% whiff
FF22%97 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
64°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.20ERA
4.57FIP
8.41K/9
4.19BB/9
1.31WHIP
TOR
3.35ERA
4.04FIP
8.45K/9
3.82BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-7.3% EV
+114
F5 OVER 3.5
-6.3% EV
-141
F5 UNDER 3.5
-6.0% EV
+108
ML AWAY
+5.3% EV
+127
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.3% EV
+157
NRFI NRFI
-4.8% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.2 runs
42.0% win
TOR F5
2.2 runs
41.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.8%
YRFI
43.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
11%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.6%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Troy Melton | Park: 1.01x
Riley Greene DET21.4%
ISO: 0.207 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kevin McGonigle DET20.4%
ISO: 0.179 | Barrel: 7.6% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Troy Melton
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Keider Montero SPPATERNITY
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Melton (2.61 ERA) holds a modest edge over Soriano (3.76 ERA) but the model's thin 5.3% ML edge falls squarely into historical support bucket (away dogs, 5-10% edge) that has historically hit only a supportive track record, signaling the market's coin-flip pricing is likely correct.
Key Factors
- SP edge: Melton 2.61 ERA/20.0% K vs Soriano 3.76 ERA/22.4% K -- 1.15 ERA gap favors away, but Soriano has better K rate
- historical support underperformance: a supportive track record on 5-10% edge away dogs well below breakeven
- Cold weather (63.8F) suppresses scoring naturally, reducing variance for a small edge to play out
- Retractable roof at Rogers Centre = neutral baseline park factor 1.0
Risk Factors
- historical support data shows this exact edge/side profile losing money historically (a supportive track record)
- Small model-market gap (2.3% implied prob edge) is within noise range
- Cold weather increases pitching variance which could favor either side unpredictably
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 51.2%
-5.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.3 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.