FINAL: MIN 3 — NYY 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.5 - NYY 4.4 (MIN at 52.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
MIN
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYY
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINNYY
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYYMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
246
MIN
346
Projected
MIN 4.5 — NYY 4.4
Actual
MIN 3 — NYY 8
Pick Results
MIN MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Will Warren R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph20% whiff
SI25%93 mph16% whiff
ST19%84 mph22% whiff
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph13% whiff
FS26%83 mph38% whiff
FC18%87 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
59°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.019 Total: 1.009
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.26ERA
4.13FIP
8.33K/9
3.65BB/9
1.24WHIP
MIN
4.47ERA
4.09FIP
9.22K/9
4.11BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-10.5% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
-8.1% EV
-114
NRFI YRFI
-6.8% EV
-120
ML HOME
+6.0% EV
+111
NRFI NRFI
-4.8% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
2.5 runs
40.2% win
MIN F5
2.7 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Aaron Judge NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.265 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.301 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN27.0%
ISO: 0.256 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Will Warren | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Will Warren
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIN8 injured
Royce Lewis 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Kaelen Culpepper SSDAY-TO-DAY
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Warren (4.37 ERA) clearly outpitches Kremer (6.10 ERA) for NYY, yet MIN's home-field premium plus cold 59F weather (which compresses run-scoring variance) creates a defensible model lean toward the home underdog that historical support data (a supportive track record) supports.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION CHECK: Kremer 6.10 ERA is much HIGHER than Warren 4.37 ERA -- NYY has clear pitcher advantage (1.73 gap), model favors MIN home DESPITE this, driven by home field + weather
- Cold weather (59F, 13.5 mph wind) suppresses run scoring by ~1.2 runs from baseline, narrowing hitter impact and favoring the underlying game-script variance
- historical support confirmation: a supportive track record on 5-10% edge home underdog bucket aligns directionally with model's lean
- Model-market gap is modest (2.8% implied prob edge) -- not overconfident territory
Risk Factors
- Clear pitcher disadvantage for MIN (Kremer 6.10 vs Warren 4.37 ERA) is a real risk factor working against the pick
- Cold weather increases variance which could just as easily suppress MIN's offense as help pitching matchup
- historical support sample size is modest, some regression risk
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 52.9%
+4.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+4.4 pts
Total
8.0
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.