FINAL: CLE 3 — CWS 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.8 - CWS 3.9 (CWS at 50.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
CLE
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CWS
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLECWS
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.8 — CWS 3.9
Actual
CLE 3 — CWS 7
Pick Results
CWS MLmlWIN+0.70u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Newcomb L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%95 mph26% whiff
SV31%83 mph29% whiff
SI22%94 mph6% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph42% whiff
FF27%98 mph27% whiff
CU22%83 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
67°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.996
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.97ERA
4.27FIP
8.89K/9
4.24BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.32ERA
3.65FIP
10.16K/9
3.66BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+11.1% EV
+141
ML HOME
-11.0% EV
-154
F5_ML AWAY
+9.5% EV
+128
F5 UNDER 3.5
-8.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.8% EV
+147
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+7.7% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.2 runs
42.7% win
CLE F5
2.1 runs
39.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
15%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.293 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x
Kyle Teel CWS28.2%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Newcomb
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model's 11.1% edge on CWS away favors Newcomb's superior ERA (2.99 vs Williams' 4.08), but historical support data shows away dogs in the 10-15% edge bucket only hit a supportive track record historically, tempering conviction on this pitching-driven lean.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Newcomb 2.99 ERA/0.78 WHIP vs Williams 4.08 ERA/1.09 WHIP -- 1.09 ERA gap favors away
- historical support data: a supportive track record on 10-15% edge away dogs below breakeven, small sample caution
- CLE bullpen (3.32 ERA) outperforms CWS bullpen (3.97 ERA) -- favors home in close/late innings
- Weather neutral: 67.4F, 6.4 mph wind, no tail impact on total or side
Risk Factors
- Away dog 10-15% edge historical support historically underperforms model implied prob by ~4pp
- Small sample in specific historical support bucket increases variance risk
- CLE playoff-motivated roster vs CWS potential tank scenario -- unquantifiable but real
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 50.0%
-8.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.8 pts
Total
7.0
+7.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.