BAL vs OAK prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.9 - BAL 5.1. BAL is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
OAK
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
BAL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBAL
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.9 — BAL 5.1
Actual
OAK 3 — BAL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph18% whiff
FS19%84 mph24% whiff
SL15%84 mph42% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph18% whiff
SL33%76 mph29% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
86°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.23ERA
3.74FIP
9.04K/9
3.76BB/9
1.31WHIP
OAK
5.36ERA
4.49FIP
9.60K/9
4.63BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.6 runs
47.4% win
OAK F5
2.1 runs
36.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.