BAL vs OAK — August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is 1.5 with a total of 10.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
OAK
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.0
BAL
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKBAL
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI37%92 mph12% whiff
CU22%71 mph28% whiff
FC21%90 mph19% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph12% whiff
CH24%80 mph37% whiff
SL24%84 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
83°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.024 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.17ERA
3.81FIP
8.69K/9
3.69BB/9
1.32WHIP
OAK
5.30ERA
4.45FIP
9.59K/9
4.60BB/9
1.57WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.6 runs
54.5% win
OAK F5
1.6 runs
28.2% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Tyler O'Neill RF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.