HOU vs NYM — August 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation has completed 10,000 iterations for this matchup. The market spread is -1.5 with a total of 9.0. Projected scores and win probabilities are shown below; the model edge, recommended pick and Kelly unit sizing are premium.
NYM
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
HOU
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMHOU
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ethan Pecko R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI29%93 mph22% whiff
FF28%94 mph19% whiff
FC15%90 mph18% whiff
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%88 mph16% whiff
FF25%92 mph15% whiff
ST15%80 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.029
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.57ERA
3.95FIP
9.29K/9
3.52BB/9
1.19WHIP
NYM
4.11ERA
4.23FIP
9.45K/9
4.20BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.6 runs
31.0% win
NYM F5
2.3 runs
50.3% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
NYM7 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.