BOS vs LAA prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAA 3.2 - BOS 3.3. LAA is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
LAA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAABOS
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 3.2 — BOS 3.3
Actual
LAA 2 — BOS 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
FF33%93 mph27% whiff
SI28%92 mph6% whiff
CH25%84 mph35% whiff
Reid Detmers L
LAA
FF44%94 mph18% whiff
SL33%86 mph33% whiff
CH11%84 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.9% EV
-189
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-30.9% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+20.7% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.6% EV
+155
NRFI NRFI
+7.8% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-141
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
37.9% win
LAA F5
1.8 runs
43.6% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.2%
YRFI
36.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
58%
No HR
14%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Bennett
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Reid Detmers
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Nate Eaton OFSUSPENSION
Willson Contreras 1BSUSPENSION
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Nick Sogard 3B10-DAY-IL
Patrick Sandoval SP60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Grayson Rodriguez SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Trout CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 51.6%
-34.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.9 pts
Total
8.0
+20.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →