BOS vs LAD prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.2 - BOS 2.9. LAD is favored with a 52.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
LAD
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BOS
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADBOS
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
LAD
135
Projected
LAD 3.2 — BOS 2.9
Actual
LAD 4 — BOS 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph24% whiff
SI22%95 mph11% whiff
FC19%88 mph28% whiff
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%91 mph32% whiff
FF26%96 mph23% whiff
FC14%91 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
78°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.034
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.55ERA
3.74FIP
8.96K/9
2.89BB/9
1.25WHIP
LAD
4.03ERA
4.07FIP
9.99K/9
4.28BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.4 runs
35.1% win
LAD F5
1.6 runs
42.1% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
68.4%
YRFI
31.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.57
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Kelly RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Brock Stewart RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Dodger home (LAD 55.8% win prob favored) with cool park (Dodger Stadium 0.92 multiplier, 78.3F, 5 mph out +1.034 multiplier) and tight pitching (Henriquez 3.01 ERA vs Suarez 3.26 ERA both solid). Model projects 4.98 total (LOWEST on slate); market 8.5. UNDER 8.5 at 21.1% edge (model 64.7% vs market 35.3%) is ELITE — cold park + ace-like suppression from both SPs = run suppression.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality ELITE both sides: Henriquez 3.01 ERA (B- grade 0.46, B- stuff 0.491) vs Suarez 3.26 ERA (B- grade 0.487, B- stuff 0.447) — nearly identical, both solid
- Park context: Dodger Stadium 0.92 multiplier (cold park effect, 78.3F, 5 mph out) — model already bakes in cool baseline
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 32.2% edge (model 74.3% prob) — ELITE first-5 suppression; both SPs control early
- NRFI 63.6% prob (12.5% edge) — strong first-inning suppression; combined NRFI + UNDER at 8.5 creates correlated value
- F5_ML HOME shows 7.2% edge (model 60.9% prob) — secondary LAD play if LAD UNDER value confirmed
Risk Factors
- 21.1% edge is EXTREME (second-highest on slate) — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; overconfidence penalty -25% unit reduction
- Model 4.98 total is LOWEST on entire slate — suggests model is overfitting cold park + pitcher quality; unusual low total may signal model weakness
- LAD Ohtani (29.1% HR prob) could go deep immediately; BOS Contreras (24.3% HR prob) also capable — outlier scenario could spike total 1-2 runs
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.