CHC vs SEA prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.5 - CHC 4.0. CHC is favored with a 53.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SEA
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACHC
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SEA
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph28% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph16% whiff
FS26%85 mph30% whiff
SL9%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
71°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.011
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.05ERA
4.57FIP
9.01K/9
3.98BB/9
1.31WHIP
SEA
3.69ERA
4.00FIP
9.07K/9
3.39BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.0 runs
42.1% win
SEA F5
1.9 runs
38.9% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.9%
YRFI
39.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.