CIN vs ATL prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.6 - CIN 4.9. CIN is favored with a 52.5% win probability. the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.5 total runs.
ATL
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CIN
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLCIN
N/A
Run Line
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.9% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.6 — CIN 4.9
Actual
ATL 0 — CIN 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Williamson L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%89 mph19% whiff
CH22%85 mph29% whiff
FF18%93 mph10% whiff
JR Ritchie R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CU27%83 mph31% whiff
SI21%94 mph12% whiff
FF19%95 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
80°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.36ERA
4.75FIP
9.07K/9
4.82BB/9
1.40WHIP
ATL
3.14ERA
3.43FIP
9.65K/9
3.02BB/9
1.12WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.9 runs
44.4% win
ATL F5
2.8 runs
41.7% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
46.0%
YRFI
54.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN7 injured
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Burns SP15-DAY IL
Spencer Steer 1B60-DAY-IL
Julian Garcia RP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
+1 more
ATL8 injured
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.