MIA vs CHC prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.8 - MIA 4.4. CHC is favored with a 69.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
CHC
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
MIA
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIA
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.4% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 5.8 — MIA 4.4
Actual
CHC 2 — MIA 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph10% whiff
SL20%86 mph13% whiff
CH18%87 mph19% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%92 mph18% whiff
FS34%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
58°F12 mph wind
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.972
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.36ERA
4.02FIP
9.86K/9
4.30BB/9
1.31WHIP
CHC
4.26ERA
4.70FIP
9.24K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.3 runs
30.4% win
CHC F5
3.6 runs
57.6% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
43.7%
YRFI
56.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.33
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Xavier Edwards 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Owen Caissie RF10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Alex Bregman 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.