MIL vs PHI prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 4.6 - MIL 4.3. PHI is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
PHI
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIMIL
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
PHI
357
Projected
PHI 4.6 — MIL 4.3
Actual
PHI 6 — MIL 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%97 mph19% whiff
FC24%93 mph22% whiff
SI20%97 mph16% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph26% whiff
SI16%95 mph10% whiff
FS16%87 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
63°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.973 Total: 0.984
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.00ERA
3.36FIP
9.50K/9
3.50BB/9
1.18WHIP
PHI
4.44ERA
3.97FIP
10.08K/9
3.50BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.3 runs
35.9% win
PHI F5
2.8 runs
49.1% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL6 injured
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
Angel Zerpa RP60-DAY-IL
PHI7 injured
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.