TB vs NYY prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.3 - TB 4.4. NYY is favored with a 50.9% win probability. NYY wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
NYY
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
TB
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTB
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.3 — TB 4.4
Actual
NYY 1 — TB 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%92 mph8% whiff
CH26%78 mph29% whiff
FC22%89 mph12% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph19% whiff
SL25%86 mph35% whiff
CH14%85 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
65°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.968 Total: 0.981
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.38ERA
3.77FIP
8.99K/9
2.63BB/9
1.11WHIP
NYY
3.28ERA
4.14FIP
8.29K/9
3.61BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
2.2 runs
40.1% win
NYY F5
2.4 runs
44.1% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
51.3%
YRFI
48.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY IL
+2 more
NYY8 injured
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.