CLE vs BOS prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 3.8 - CLE 4.0. CLE is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
BOS
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
CLE
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSCLE
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 3.8 — CLE 4.0
Actual
BOS 2 — CLE 3
Pick Results
Payton Tolle UNDER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.37u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%94 mph23% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI15%93 mph8% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%96 mph26% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
FC19%89 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
59°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.945 Total: 0.968
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.37ERA
3.69FIP
10.14K/9
3.75BB/9
1.22WHIP
BOS
3.04ERA
3.29FIP
9.83K/9
3.10BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 3.5
-10.3% EV
-132
TOTAL OVER 6.5
+6.8% EV
-105
ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-123
NRFI YRFI
-6.2% EV
+138
F5_ML AWAY
+5.6% EV
+112
NRFI NRFI
-5.5% EV
-179
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.1 runs
43.2% win
BOS F5
2.0 runs
38.7% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
60.3%
YRFI
39.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
78%
Over 1.5 HR
46%
No HR
22%
Chase DeLauter CLE25.3%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x
Jo Adell CLE20.5%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS19.2%
ISO: 0.190 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Parker Messick | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Brayan Rocchio SSDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY IL
BOS8 injured
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Aroldis Chapman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.9%
-4.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-4.8 pts
Total
6.5
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.