WSH vs DET prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 3.7 - WSH 3.9. WSH is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
DET
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETWSH
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 3.7 — WSH 3.9
Actual
DET 1 — WSH 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Riley Cornelio R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL49%85 mph52% whiff
FF38%96 mph10% whiff
FC12%90 mph33% whiff
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%95 mph17% whiff
CH31%90 mph33% whiff
CU22%80 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
63°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.66ERA
5.27FIP
8.77K/9
4.91BB/9
1.56WHIP
DET
4.16ERA
4.52FIP
8.39K/9
4.06BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.2 runs
43.7% win
DET F5
2.0 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH7 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP60-DAY IL
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY IL
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY IL
+1 more
DET8 injured
Colt Keith 3B10-DAY-IL
Troy Melton SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Finnegan RP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.