STL vs PIT prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 4.5 - STL 4.5. PIT is favored with a 53.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
PIT
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
STL
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITSTL
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.9% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
346
PIT
346
Projected
PIT 4.5 — STL 4.5
Actual
PIT 2 — STL 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%95 mph12% whiff
SL29%88 mph30% whiff
KC17%79 mph28% whiff
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%98 mph19% whiff
SL35%90 mph39% whiff
CH11%93 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
60°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.991 Total: 0.993
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.49ERA
4.25FIP
8.53K/9
4.24BB/9
1.37WHIP
PIT
3.80ERA
3.61FIP
9.58K/9
4.16BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.4 runs
41.0% win
PIT F5
2.5 runs
43.6% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL5 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY IL
Joshua Baez LF10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
PIT5 injured
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY IL
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.