TOR vs BAL prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.5 - TOR 3.7. BAL is favored with a 50.5% win probability. BAL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
BAL
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTOR
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
BAL
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph14% whiff
SL18%85 mph25% whiff
CH15%84 mph16% whiff
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI37%92 mph12% whiff
CU22%71 mph29% whiff
FC19%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
61°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.973
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.33ERA
4.02FIP
8.52K/9
3.78BB/9
1.26WHIP
BAL
3.95ERA
3.70FIP
8.85K/9
3.64BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.1 runs
40.4% win
BAL F5
2.1 runs
42.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.5%
YRFI
42.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Brett Bateman CFDAY-TO-DAY
Dylan Cease SPDAY-TO-DAY
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Samuel Basallo CDAY-TO-DAY
Jackson Holliday 2B10-DAY-IL
Tyler O'Neill RF60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Bradish SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.