CWS vs KC prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 4.5 - CWS 3.7. KC is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
KC
4.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCCWS
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
KC
346
Projected
KC 4.5 — CWS 3.7
Actual
KC 11 — CWS 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST23%83 mph34% whiff
FF23%96 mph17% whiff
SI18%95 mph15% whiff
Daniel Lynch IV L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%94 mph14% whiff
CH25%86 mph24% whiff
SL19%87 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
72°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.996 Total: 0.995
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.74ERA
4.28FIP
9.19K/9
4.52BB/9
1.30WHIP
KC
4.99ERA
4.89FIP
7.98K/9
4.60BB/9
1.55WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.9 runs
32.0% win
KC F5
2.6 runs
51.0% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
KC8 injured
Craig Kimbrel RPBEREAVEMENT
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.