CIN vs MIL prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 5.3 - CIN 4.6. MIL is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.9 total runs.
MIL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CIN
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILCIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.8% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 5.3 — CIN 4.6
Actual
MIL 20 — CIN 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%92 mph10% whiff
ST20%82 mph25% whiff
CH19%86 mph36% whiff
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%97 mph18% whiff
FC24%93 mph21% whiff
ST19%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
73°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.984 Total: 0.988
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.24ERA
4.75FIP
9.14K/9
4.89BB/9
1.39WHIP
MIL
3.08ERA
3.39FIP
9.52K/9
3.62BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.7 runs
38.4% win
MIL F5
3.2 runs
48.0% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
47.9%
YRFI
52.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN4 injured
Michael Toglia 1B60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
MIL8 injured
Jake Bauers 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.