CIN vs SF prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.5 - CIN 4.6. CIN is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SF
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
CIN
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCIN
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.9% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
357
SF
245
Projected
SF 3.5 — CIN 4.6
Actual
SF 5 — CIN 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns R
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF56%98 mph15% whiff
SL38%90 mph49% whiff
CH5%90 mph28% whiff
Carson Whisenhunt L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH35%83 mph39% whiff
FF35%93 mph8% whiff
SL17%85 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
62°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.076 Total: 1.044
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.17ERA
4.71FIP
9.06K/9
4.97BB/9
1.39WHIP
SF
4.72ERA
4.56FIP
7.26K/9
4.59BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.7 runs
51.4% win
SF F5
1.9 runs
32.7% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Michael Toglia 1B10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Bryce Eldridge DHBEREAVEMENT
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Willy Adames SS10-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.