CHC vs ARI prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.6 - CHC 5.5. CHC is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
ARI
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
CHC
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICHC
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
467
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS38%84 mph39% whiff
SL10%84 mph34% whiff
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%92 mph11% whiff
CH27%88 mph29% whiff
FC14%91 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
108°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.077 Total: 1.038
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.03ERA
4.56FIP
9.01K/9
3.96BB/9
1.31WHIP
ARI
3.27ERA
3.55FIP
7.87K/9
2.90BB/9
1.14WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.4 runs
52.1% win
ARI F5
2.5 runs
34.4% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.19
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Ketel Marte 2B10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.