PIT vs SD prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.8 - PIT 4.1. PIT is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
SD
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDPIT
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 3.8 — PIT 4.1
Actual
SD 2 — PIT 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph39% whiff
SL22%92 mph28% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
SL25%86 mph32% whiff
CH18%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
73°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.036
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.52ERA
3.60FIP
9.84K/9
4.14BB/9
1.25WHIP
SD
3.13ERA
3.67FIP
9.62K/9
3.73BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.4 runs
45.7% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
59.3%
YRFI
40.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT4 injured
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SPDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.