COL vs WSH prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 5.0 - COL 5.5. COL is favored with a 50.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.5 total runs.
WSH
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
COL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHCOL
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
467
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 5.0 — COL 5.5
Actual
WSH 13 — COL 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
SL24%89 mph26% whiff
CH17%85 mph45% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%97 mph18% whiff
KC26%86 mph37% whiff
SI14%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
83°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.054 Total: 1.029
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.84ERA
4.29FIP
7.50K/9
3.85BB/9
1.49WHIP
WSH
5.45ERA
5.15FIP
9.03K/9
4.80BB/9
1.56WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.7 runs
39.0% win
WSH F5
3.1 runs
47.8% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
45.4%
YRFI
54.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.20
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Goodman C10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.