PHI vs SEA prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.8 - PHI 4.3. PHI is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
PHI
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAPHI
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.8 — PHI 4.3
Actual
SEA 9 — PHI 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%95 mph24% whiff
SI16%95 mph10% whiff
FS16%87 mph45% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%87 mph33% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
76°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.38ERA
3.86FIP
10.28K/9
3.60BB/9
1.36WHIP
SEA
3.87ERA
4.05FIP
9.02K/9
3.40BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.3 runs
46.6% win
SEA F5
2.0 runs
36.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI8 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.