BOS vs MIA prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.2 - BOS 3.4. BOS is favored with a 51.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 6.5 total runs.
MIA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
BOS
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIABOS
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.8% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
135
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 3.2 — BOS 3.4
Actual
MIA 2 — BOS 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ranger Suarez L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI23%90 mph11% whiff
FF23%92 mph15% whiff
FC20%88 mph14% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI27%97 mph8% whiff
CH20%91 mph26% whiff
FF19%97 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.992 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.22ERA
3.45FIP
9.59K/9
3.10BB/9
1.21WHIP
MIA
4.11ERA
3.88FIP
9.59K/9
4.08BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.6 runs
38.9% win
MIA F5
1.6 runs
37.5% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
68.5%
YRFI
31.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.58
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA7 injured
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.