MIN vs OAK prediction for August 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 5.5 - MIN 5.9. OAK is favored with a 50.3% win probability. OAK wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 11.3 total runs.
OAK
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
MIN
5.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKMIN
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
468
OAK
467
Projected
OAK 5.5 — MIN 5.9
Actual
OAK 6 — MIN 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph11% whiff
SL22%87 mph33% whiff
CH13%87 mph15% whiff
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%91 mph12% whiff
SL24%84 mph21% whiff
CH24%80 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
90°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.32ERA
4.03FIP
9.03K/9
3.97BB/9
1.39WHIP
OAK
5.17ERA
4.30FIP
9.83K/9
4.64BB/9
1.55WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.1 runs
41.1% win
OAK F5
3.2 runs
46.4% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
48.1%
YRFI
51.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.18
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.