MLB Baseball

CLE vs COL Prediction

August 23, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

CLE vs COL prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects COL 8.0 - CLE 7.4. COL is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 15.4 total runs.

COL
8.0
Projected Score
VS O/U 11.0
CLE
7.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
54.7%
45.3%
COLCLE
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (3,320 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

CLE
579
COL
6810

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Foster Griffin L
CLE
FC32% · 88
FF17% · 92
ST14% · 80
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph17% whiff
FF17%92 mph18% whiff
ST14%80 mph26% whiff
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
FS22% · 87
FF20% · 92
SI19% · 92
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS22%87 mph30% whiff
FF20%92 mph14% whiff
SI19%92 mph2% whiff

Weather Impact

Coors Field
94°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.124 Total: 1.062
thin air

Bullpen Comparison

CLE
3.53ERA
3.87FIP
9.95K/9
3.93BB/9
1.26WHIP
COL
4.84ERA
4.32FIP
7.50K/9
3.88BB/9
1.50WHIP

Betting Edges

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Edge Analysis
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First 5 Innings & NRFI

CLE F5
4.4 runs
43.0% win
COL F5
4.8 runs
47.6% win
F5 Total
9.2
NRFI
37.9%
YRFI
62.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.71

HR Spotlight

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Home Run Analysis
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Injury Report

CLE4 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
COL8 injured
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Goodman C10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.

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