CWS vs MIN prediction for August 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 5.2 - CWS 5.3. MIN is favored with a 51.1% win probability. MIN wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.6 total runs.
MIN
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINCWS
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 5.2 — CWS 5.3
Actual
MIN 4 — CWS 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luis Castillo R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%95 mph25% whiff
SL25%86 mph27% whiff
SI18%96 mph10% whiff
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%83 mph37% whiff
FF25%93 mph11% whiff
FC17%87 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
82°F2 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.34ERA
4.45FIP
9.19K/9
4.60BB/9
1.39WHIP
MIN
4.42ERA
4.04FIP
9.01K/9
3.96BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.8 runs
41.7% win
MIN F5
3.0 runs
44.4% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
50.5%
YRFI
49.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
MIN8 injured
Byron Buxton CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.