FINAL: TB 1 — CWS 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TB 2.4 - CWS 3.1 (CWS at 54.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.5 total runs.
TB
2.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBCWS
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWS L4TB
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
135
TB
024
Projected
TB 2.4 — CWS 3.1
Actual
TB 1 — CWS 0
Pick Results
CWS @ TB NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jordan Hicks R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%99 mph11% whiff
ST34%87 mph47% whiff
FF12%100 mph25% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%90 mph23% whiff
FF27%96 mph23% whiff
SI22%96 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
86°F13 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.82ERA
4.13FIP
9.11K/9
4.52BB/9
1.34WHIP
TB
3.79ERA
4.05FIP
8.93K/9
3.23BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+33.9% EV
+146
F5_ML HOME
-29.8% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-23.3% EV
-114
F5 UNDER 4.5
+22.8% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-21.1% EV
+128
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+14.8% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
1.6 runs
45.4% win
TB F5
1.2 runs
30.3% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
66.3%
YRFI
33.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.62
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.0
Over 0.5 HR
63%
Over 1.5 HR
28%
No HR
37%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.365 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS26.5%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x
Colson Montgomery CWS23.6%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 13.7% | vs Drew Rasmussen | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jordan Hicks
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Drew Rasmussen
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 54.5%
-21.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-21.1 pts
Total
7.5
+14.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.