FINAL: TOR 5 — STL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 3.0 - STL 2.4 (TOR at 55.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 5.4 total runs.
TOR
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
2.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORSTL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
STLTOR W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.1% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
024
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 3.0 — STL 2.4
Actual
TOR 5 — STL 1
Pick Results
STL @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.42u
STL @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF60%94 mph44% whiff
SL19%86 mph67% whiff
CH13%81 mph40% whiff
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF52%94 mph13% whiff
FS38%84 mph38% whiff
SL10%84 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
80°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.017
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.23ERA
4.24FIP
8.13K/9
4.15BB/9
1.36WHIP
TOR
3.32ERA
3.40FIP
9.42K/9
3.42BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+32.1% EV
-108
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-28.2% EV
-104
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+17.2% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.8% EV
+126
NRFI NRFI
+8.7% EV
-115
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
+114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
1.3 runs
33.3% win
TOR F5
1.7 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.67
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.4
Over 0.5 HR
75%
Over 1.5 HR
40%
No HR
25%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR28.1%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Quinn Mathews | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL25.9%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 12.2% | vs Kevin Gausman | Park: 1.01x
George Springer TOR21.6%
ISO: 0.171 | Barrel: 8.4% | vs Quinn Mathews | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Quinn Mathews
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
STL3 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
TOR8 injured
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP15-DAY-IL
Jonatan Clase LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 55.8%
-8.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.8 pts
Total
8.5
+17.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.