FINAL: SEA 4 — MIN 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 2.8 - MIN 3.0 (MIN at 50.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.8 total runs.
SEA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAMIN
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN W4SEA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.8 — MIN 3.0
Actual
SEA 4 — MIN 3
Pick Results
MIN @ SEA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%96 mph13% whiff
SL29%88 mph26% whiff
CU17%82 mph34% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph20% whiff
SL24%86 mph34% whiff
FS14%82 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
64°F14 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.046
14mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.19ERA
4.11FIP
8.50K/9
3.94BB/9
1.35WHIP
SEA
3.42ERA
3.70FIP
8.92K/9
3.41BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-20.0% EV
+100
F5 UNDER 3.5
+18.8% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
-18.2% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-14.8% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
+13.4% EV
+132
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.2% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.6 runs
40.0% win
SEA F5
1.5 runs
37.3% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
66.2%
YRFI
33.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
77%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
23%
Kody Clemens MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 15.2% | vs Connor Prielipp | Park: 0.89x
Ryan Jeffers MIN26.3%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Connor Prielipp
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN7 injured
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
SEA8 injured
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 50.4%
-14.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-14.8 pts
Total
7.5
+9.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.