FINAL: CLE 8 — ARI 12. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CLE 3.7 - ARI 3.2 (CLE at 55.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEARI
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ARI W4CLE L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
135
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 3.7 — ARI 3.2
Actual
CLE 8 — ARI 12
Pick Results
ARI @ CLE NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kohl Drake L
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%92 mph15% whiff
CU21%78 mph27% whiff
CH17%82 mph42% whiff
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%94 mph22% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI17%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.002
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.46ERA
3.70FIP
7.97K/9
2.83BB/9
1.14WHIP
CLE
3.45ERA
3.60FIP
10.36K/9
3.67BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+17.8% EV
-110
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.4% EV
-105
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+7.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.3% EV
+130
F5_ML HOME
-6.2% EV
-182
ML HOME
-5.6% EV
-164
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.5 runs
32.2% win
CLE F5
2.1 runs
48.5% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.148 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Kohl Drake | Park: 0.97x
Rhys Hoskins CLE27.7%
ISO: 0.174 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Kohl Drake | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Angel Martínez CLE21.9%
ISO: 0.095 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Kohl Drake | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kohl Drake
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Parker Messick
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE1 injured
Shawn Armstrong RP15-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 55.0%
-6.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.3 pts
Total
8.5
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.