FINAL: HOU 5 — TEX 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 5.0 - TEX 3.6 (HOU at 59.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
HOU
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TEX
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUTEX
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX W4HOU W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 5.0 — TEX 3.6
Actual
HOU 5 — TEX 4
Pick Results
TEX @ HOU NRFInrfiWIN+0.45u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph24% whiff
SL36%91 mph36% whiff
CH13%90 mph43% whiff
Ronel Blanco R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph14% whiff
SL29%86 mph38% whiff
CU20%80 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
96°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.004
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.31ERA
4.32FIP
8.22K/9
3.54BB/9
1.33WHIP
HOU
3.53ERA
4.11FIP
9.17K/9
3.75BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-27.1% EV
-149
F5_ML HOME
+24.0% EV
+120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.6% EV
+132
ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-120
ML HOME
+8.5% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+6.5% EV
-161
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.1 runs
33.4% win
HOU F5
2.9 runs
51.9% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.4%
YRFI
49.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.233 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Ronel Blanco | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.257 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Ronel Blanco | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.334 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Ronel Blanco
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Cody Bradford SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Montgomery SP60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 59.4%
+6.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+6.5 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.