FINAL: CIN 1 — PIT 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CIN 3.6 - PIT 3.8 (CIN at 50.1% win probability). CIN wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
CIN
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINPIT
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
CIN
246
Projected
CIN 3.6 — PIT 3.8
Actual
CIN 1 — PIT 4
Pick Results
PIT @ CIN NRFInrfiWIN+0.40u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph13% whiff
CU26%85 mph40% whiff
SL23%92 mph29% whiff
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%92 mph11% whiff
ST20%82 mph28% whiff
CH18%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
80°F13 mph wind
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.988
thin air, 11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
4.42ERA
4.53FIP
9.17K/9
4.43BB/9
1.43WHIP
CIN
4.25ERA
5.01FIP
8.41K/9
4.96BB/9
1.40WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-14.8% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+9.9% EV
-132
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.6% EV
+130
F5_ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
-123
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+6.2% EV
-105
ML AWAY
-4.2% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.9 runs
40.9% win
CIN F5
1.8 runs
39.7% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.562 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Andrew Abbott | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Elly De La Cruz CIN29.2%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Braxton Ashcraft | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT25.8%
ISO: 0.131 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Andrew Abbott | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Braxton Ashcraft
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Abbott
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT7 injured
Ryan O'Hearn RFDAY-TO-DAY
Evan Sisk RP15-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Spencer Horwitz 1B10-DAY-IL
Rafael Flores Jr. C7-DAY IL
Chris Devenski RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CIN6 injured
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Lodolo SP15-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 50.1%
-0.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-0.4 pts
Total
8.0
+6.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.