PHI vs BAL prediction for August 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.7 - PHI 3.2. BAL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
BAL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALPHI
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
135
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 3.7 — PHI 3.2
Actual
BAL 0 — PHI 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI43%95 mph10% whiff
CH38%87 mph42% whiff
SL19%86 mph42% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph14% whiff
KC33%85 mph26% whiff
FC17%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
86°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.79ERA
3.97FIP
10.58K/9
3.71BB/9
1.43WHIP
BAL
3.86ERA
3.99FIP
8.55K/9
3.39BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.7 runs
35.7% win
BAL F5
2.0 runs
44.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
57.7%
YRFI
42.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.