FINAL: ATL 8 — WSH 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ATL 5.3 - WSH 3.5 (ATL at 62.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
ATL
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLWSH
-1.5
Run Line (ATL)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSHATL W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (3,125 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
245
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 5.3 — WSH 3.5
Actual
ATL 8 — WSH 3
Pick Results
WSH @ ATL NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph12% whiff
SI24%93 mph7% whiff
SL22%88 mph16% whiff
Reynaldo López R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph14% whiff
SL31%84 mph33% whiff
CU11%74 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
84°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.022
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.54ERA
5.22FIP
8.79K/9
4.77BB/9
1.56WHIP
ATL
2.77ERA
3.25FIP
9.58K/9
2.94BB/9
1.07WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 5.5
+11.3% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-11.2% EV
-149
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-10.1% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-9.8% EV
+132
NRFI NRFI
+7.6% EV
+124
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.3% EV
+125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.9 runs
32.5% win
ATL F5
2.8 runs
52.1% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
74%
No HR
7%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 15.9% | vs Reynaldo López | Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Miles Mikolas | Platoon: 1.12x
Drake Baldwin ATL30.0%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 11.4% | vs Miles Mikolas | Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Luis Garcia Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Mitchell Parker RP60-DAY-IL
Brad Lord RP15-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP15-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL8 injured
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Sean Murphy C60-DAY-IL
Ha-Seong Kim SS10-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ATL 62.4%
+5.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.3 pts
Total
9.5
+0.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.