FINAL: CWS 3 — DET 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.2 - DET 4.6 (DET at 53.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CWS
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSDET
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5CWS
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.5% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.2 — DET 4.6
Actual
CWS 3 — DET 1
Pick Results
DET MLmlLOSS-0.50u
DET MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI44%94 mph8% whiff
CU29%78 mph28% whiff
CH18%89 mph19% whiff
Erick Fedde R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%82 mph22% whiff
SI30%94 mph11% whiff
FC19%91 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
69°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.050 Total: 1.027
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.17ERA
4.55FIP
8.31K/9
4.14BB/9
1.30WHIP
CWS
3.96ERA
4.33FIP
8.88K/9
4.23BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
-6.5% EV
-120
F5 UNDER 4.5
-5.6% EV
-108
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.2% EV
+179
F5_ML AWAY
-4.3% EV
-120
ML AWAY
+3.4% EV
+102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.6 runs
44.5% win
CWS F5
2.5 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
52.6%
YRFI
47.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
9%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.182 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.01x
Riley Greene DET27.1%
ISO: 0.201 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Erick Fedde | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS24.4%
ISO: 0.283 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Framber Valdez | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Erick Fedde
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Framber Valdez (4.33 ERA, 16.96% K rate, C+ stuff) is essentially even with Erick Fedde (4.29 ERA, 15.9% K rate, C- stuff). But Valdez has edge in command (B vs B-) and DET plays better on road (a supportive track record away last 30d). 3.4% ML edge on away underdog at +102 is actionable given road team bias.
Key Factors
- Away underdog pattern: DET ML at +102 (49.5% implied) taps into profitable away underdog historical support
- SP comparables: Valdez (4.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9) vs Fedde (4.29 ERA, 15.9% K rate) — nearly identical, slight Valdez edge in command
- Model edge: 3.4% edge (51.2% model probability vs 49.5% market) — marginal but meets 3.0% calibration floor for ML
- Zone profile: Away underdog 0-5% edge shows a supportive track record — reasonable expectation for this profile
- Cold weather factor: 68.7F suppresses runs slightly; lower-scoring game favors pitcher quality, which is even
Risk Factors
- Marginal edge (3.4%): Right at the boundary of actionability — any model uncertainty pushes this to SKIP territory
- Home field underweighted: CWS still home team; late-season discounting may be overdone by our historical support analysis
- Bullpen fatigue: Without recent usage data, can't assess if either bullpen is spent
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 53.6%
-5.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.2 pts
Total
8.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.