FINAL: COL 2 — SD 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 5.9 - SD 7.1 (SD at 59.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 13.0 total runs.
COL
5.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
SD
7.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSD
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
579
COL
468
Projected
COL 5.9 — SD 7.1
Actual
COL 2 — SD 9
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
CH27%86 mph26% whiff
FF20%94 mph25% whiff
Tanner Gordon R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%93 mph18% whiff
CH22%85 mph23% whiff
SL22%87 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
79°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.139 Total: 1.070
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.91ERA
3.53FIP
9.81K/9
3.72BB/9
1.20WHIP
COL
4.94ERA
4.33FIP
7.82K/9
4.28BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-19.6% EV
-101
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+13.2% EV
-111
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.0% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
-6.8% EV
+130
ML AWAY
-5.3% EV
-189
F5_ML AWAY
-4.8% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
4.2 runs
53.4% win
COL F5
3.4 runs
36.4% win
F5 Total
7.7
NRFI
38.5%
YRFI
61.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.63
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
3%
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD30.0%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x
Luis Campusano SD29.9%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.1% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x
Jackson Merrill SD28.7%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Tanner Gordon | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Gordon
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Hunter Goodman CDAY-TO-DAY
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Coors Field 1.18x park factor (highest in MLB) + 79.1F with 2.9 mph tailwind creates 1.07x total environment boost. Model projects 12.98 runs vs 10.5 market — 13.2% OVER edge with 59.6% prob. SD's King (3.27 ERA) better than COL's Gordon (5.99 ERA) but park elevation overpowers pitcher quality.
Key Factors
- Coors Field inflation: 1.18x park factor is the highest multiplier on entire slate — automatically adds 1-1.5 runs to typical total
- Weather boost: 79.1F + 2.9 mph tailwind (not dominant but favorable) adds 0.3-0.5 runs via density altitude (2534 ft)
- Total edge: Model 12.98 vs market 10.5 = 2.48 run edge (13.2% edge, 59.6% OVER prob) — one of best edges today
- SP mismatch masked by park: King (3.27 ERA) vs Gordon (5.99 ERA) should create under lean, but Coors dominates the outcome
- historical support data: OVER 10-15% edge and 55-60% prob both historically mixeds with ~a supportive track record but park factor is the real play
Risk Factors
- Coors totals high variance: When parks are this inflated, variance explodes — 13% edge could easily become 55-a supportive track record vs expected 60%+
- SD visiting team rested angle: Padres clinched playoff berth; may not bring intensity to Coors, reducing run production
- Gordon's home ERA: While 5.99 ERA is bad league-wide, at altitude it plays like 5.2 ERA locally — still bad but not 6.0
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 59.8%
+3.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+3.7 pts
Total
10.5
+13.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.