FINAL: HOU 6 — KC 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 4.7 - KC 4.0 (HOU at 62.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
HOU
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
KC
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUKC
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.0% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
HOU
357
Projected
HOU 4.7 — KC 4.0
Actual
HOU 6 — KC 2
Pick Results
KC MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI20%91 mph11% whiff
FF16%92 mph12% whiff
FC16%90 mph21% whiff
Miguel Ullola R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF74%95 mph23% whiff
SL22%86 mph23% whiff
CU2%83 mph50% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
84°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.036 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.91ERA
4.86FIP
7.91K/9
4.65BB/9
1.55WHIP
HOU
3.54ERA
4.03FIP
9.21K/9
3.58BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-9.5% EV
-132
ML AWAY
-7.4% EV
+134
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-4.3% EV
+101
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-3.9% EV
-154
ML HOME
+2.1% EV
-145
F5 UNDER 4.5
-1.5% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.2 runs
34.0% win
HOU F5
2.9 runs
50.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.216 | Barrel: 10.3% | vs Miguel Ullola | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Seth Lugo | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC29.5%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Miguel Ullola | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Seth Lugo
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Miguel Ullola
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Miguel Ullola (3.65 ERA, 33.3% K rate, B+ stuff, excellent command) vs Seth Lugo (5.39 ERA, 17.8% K rate, C- stuff) creates clear home pitcher advantage worth ~2% edge. But model and market are almost perfectly aligned — zero actionable edge exists. NEUTRAL game; skip.
Key Factors
- SP quality: Ullola (3.65 ERA, 33.3% K rate) is clearly better than Lugo (5.39 ERA, 17.8% K rate) — 1.74 run ERA gap
- Market efficiency: Model 60.4% prob vs market implied 59.2% — only 2.1% edge, well within noise
- Zone profile: ML home favorite 0-5% edge historical support shows a supportive track record — below 50%, suggesting unfavorable profile
- Bullpen context: HOU bullpen (3.54 ERA) vs KC bullpen (4.91 ERA) — HOU edge confirmed by team quality
- Neutral environment: Daikin Park closed roof (1.0x neutral), 84.4F, minimal wind — pitcher quality is all that matters
Risk Factors
- Favorite at -144 odds: Home favorites underperforming (a supportive track record last 30d) — late-season home field discount is real
- Low edge (2.1%): Falls below calibration minimum of 3.0% for ML plays — technically shouldn't be generated by system
- Game script risk: Both teams fighting for playoff positioning — can't predict which team is hungrier
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 62.4%
-0.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-0.2 pts
Total
9.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.