OAK vs TB prediction for September 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.8 - OAK 4.0. TB is favored with a 74.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
TB
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
OAK
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBOAK
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.4% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
TB
468
Projected
TB 5.8 — OAK 4.0
Actual
TB 10 — OAK 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jeffrey Springs L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%91 mph12% whiff
CH25%80 mph35% whiff
SL23%84 mph20% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF28%96 mph23% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
85°F13 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.00ERA
4.34FIP
9.51K/9
4.59BB/9
1.52WHIP
TB
3.44ERA
3.80FIP
8.96K/9
2.67BB/9
1.12WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.0 runs
26.5% win
TB F5
3.5 runs
60.8% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Tyler Wells RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.