FINAL: TEX 3 — BOS 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 3.8 - BOS 3.7 (TEX at 53.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBOS
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOSTEX L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.2% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.8 — BOS 3.7
Actual
TEX 3 — BOS 4
Pick Results
TEX MLmlLOSS-0.50u
TEX MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI22%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
FC19%88 mph13% whiff
Tyler Alexander L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH24%85 mph25% whiff
FC21%88 mph20% whiff
SI19%91 mph5% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.013
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.08ERA
3.30FIP
9.84K/9
3.05BB/9
1.21WHIP
TEX
4.31ERA
4.45FIP
8.52K/9
3.76BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.8% EV
+137
NRFI YRFI
-10.2% EV
+108
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-9.6% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-7.7% EV
-118
ML HOME
+4.8% EV
+109
F5 UNDER 4.5
+4.3% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
39.5% win
TEX F5
2.1 runs
42.3% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
12%
Corey Seager TEX27.3%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Willson Contreras BOS26.4%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Wilyer Abreu BOS21.3%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Tyler Alexander | Park: 1.02x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Tyler Alexander
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Ceddanne Rafaela CF10-DAY-IL
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Cal Quantrill RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN
Sonny Gray (2.98 ERA, 22.6% K rate, B- stuff) is elite compared to Tyler Alexander (3.65 ERA, 19.4% K rate, B- stuff). Road favorite typically difficult to play, but Gray's 0.67 ERA advantage at neutral park + 95.9F heat creates 4.8% ML edge on BOS at -117 (54.1% implied). Gray's pedigree makes this a LEAN.
Key Factors
- Elite SP advantage: Sonny Gray (2.98 ERA, 22.6% K rate) is clear better than Alexander (3.65 ERA, 19.4% K rate) — 0.67 run ERA gap
- Hot weather factor: 95.9F inflates runs ~0.7-1.0 total; Globe Life closed roof neutralizes this to 1.013x multiplier
- ML edge: Model 50.1% (virtually coin flip) vs market 54.1% — only 4.8% edge but on road favorite (difficult profile)
- Zone profile: Away favorite at +118 odds shows a supportive track record historical support — near-neutral rather than true underdog
- Historical road favorite challenge: Road favorites historically underperform; 4.8% edge may be inflated by market inefficiency elsewhere
Risk Factors
- Road favorite curse: Favorites on road typically underperform (a supportive track record home, a supportive track record away suggests market is right to discount road favs)
- Model may overweight SP quality: Gray's 2.98 ERA vs Alexander's 3.65 may not translate directly to win probability in neutral park
- 95.9F but roof closed: Globe Life's retractable roof removes weather edge; effective game conditions are neutral
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 53.0%
+2.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.9 pts
Total
8.0
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.