PHI vs NYM prediction for September 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 4.9 - PHI 4.6. NYM is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
NYM
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PHI
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
NYM
357
Projected
NYM 4.9 — PHI 4.6
Actual
NYM 0 — PHI 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC33%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph11% whiff
SI18%92 mph11% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%95 mph12% whiff
FF20%96 mph26% whiff
CU14%82 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.051 Total: 1.028
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.36ERA
3.95FIP
10.28K/9
3.53BB/9
1.34WHIP
NYM
4.50ERA
4.31FIP
9.62K/9
3.77BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.6 runs
36.9% win
NYM F5
3.1 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
45.6%
YRFI
54.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.21
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
NYM7 injured
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.