FINAL: PIT 7 — MIL 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 5.3 - MIL 5.1 (PIT at 56.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
PIT
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
MIL
5.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITMIL
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
357
PIT
357
Projected
PIT 5.3 — MIL 5.1
Actual
PIT 7 — MIL 4
Pick Results
PIT MLmlWIN+0.60u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%95 mph26% whiff
SV31%82 mph28% whiff
CH9%86 mph24% whiff
Wilber Dotel R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%98 mph15% whiff
FC22%92 mph26% whiff
SL22%88 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
80°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.036
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.02ERA
3.40FIP
9.44K/9
3.56BB/9
1.20WHIP
PIT
3.85ERA
3.64FIP
9.62K/9
4.22BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+15.7% EV
+106
F5_ML AWAY
-14.9% EV
-135
ML AWAY
-13.0% EV
-128
ML HOME
+12.0% EV
+119
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.1% EV
+124
NRFI NRFI
-10.7% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.9 runs
40.0% win
PIT F5
3.2 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Oneil Cruz PIT29.5%
ISO: 0.157 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Kyle Harrison | Park: 0.95x
Jackson Chourio MIL25.7%
ISO: 0.186 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Wilber Dotel | Park: 0.95x
Brandon Lowe PIT24.6%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Kyle Harrison | Park: 0.95x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Harrison
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Wilber Dotel
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIL7 injured
Garrett Mitchell CFDAY-TO-DAY
Grant Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Bryse Wilson RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Brian Fitzpatrick RP60-DAY-IL
Quinn Priester SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
PIT6 injured
Esmerlyn Valdez RF10-DAY-IL
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Kyle Harrison (4.30 ERA, 28.1% K rate, B stuff) outclasses Wilber Dotel (5.23 ERA, 24% K rate, C+ stuff) — classic SP mismatch worth 12% ML edge at home, confirmed by market undervaluation.
Key Factors
- SP quality gap: Kyle Harrison 4.30 ERA vs Wilber Dotel 5.23 ERA = 0.93 run advantage to MIL across 9 innings
- K/BB control: Harrison 28.1% K / 6.9% BB vs Dotel 24% K / 8.7% BB — Harrison commands historical support better
- Zone profile: ML home 10-15% edge historical support shows a supportive track record — slightly profitable but small sample
- Market mispricing: Model shows PIT only 45.7% implied vs 56.7% actual win prob — 12% edge is real
- Park factor: PNC 1.0x neutral, temp 79.7F, wind 5.4 mph out — modest run environment, favors pitcher quality which goes to MIL
Risk Factors
- Away pitcher coming off shorter rest — no injury reports but short outing risk
- PIT bullpen (3.85 ERA) slightly deeper than MIL (3.02 ERA) but won't matter if Harrison dominates early
- 12% edge in 51% historical support shows historical a supportive track record — above expectation but small n=15 sample; reality likely 54-a supportive track record
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 56.7%
+4.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+4.3 pts
Total
9.0
+15.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.