FINAL: LAA 5 — MIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 3.7 - MIN 3.8 (LAA at 50.2% win probability). LAA wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
LAA
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
MIN
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAAMIN
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN L4LAA W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.9% (3,969 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
LAA
246
Projected
LAA 3.7 — MIN 3.8
Actual
LAA 5 — MIN 4
Pick Results
LAA MLmlWIN+0.57u
LAA MLmlWIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Taj Bradley R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%97 mph14% whiff
FC24%90 mph34% whiff
FS20%92 mph33% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH34%91 mph34% whiff
SI32%98 mph15% whiff
FF19%98 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.47ERA
4.11FIP
9.26K/9
4.09BB/9
1.40WHIP
LAA
4.11ERA
4.07FIP
9.45K/9
3.85BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-9.5% EV
-114
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-5.9% EV
+103
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.0% EV
+165
ML HOME
-3.1% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
-2.1% EV
-141
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-1.2% EV
-185
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.0 runs
38.4% win
LAA F5
2.1 runs
43.5% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
16%
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.98x
Jose Siri LAA29.4%
ISO: 0.096 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.98x
Zach Neto LAA28.7%
ISO: 0.187 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Taj Bradley | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Taj Bradley
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Trevor Larnach LFDAY-TO-DAY
Kaelen Culpepper SS10-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Walbert Urena (3.11 ERA, 22.6% K rate, B- stuff) vs Taj Bradley (4.11 ERA, 27.2% K rate, B- stuff) creates marginal LAA edge at home, but model (50.7% LAA) vs market (52.4% LAA) = model is BEHIND the market by 1.7%. Zero edge. This is a coin flip masquerading as data. SKIP.
Key Factors
- SP matchup: Bradley (4.11 ERA) is actually decent vs Urena (3.11 ERA) — favors LAA by ~0.5 runs, fair home advantage
- Model vs market conflict: Model projects 50.7% LAA win prob but market implies 52.4% — model is UNDERVALUING LAA
- Zero edge: -1.7% edge on home ML doesn't meet 3.0% calibration minimum; this is a SKIP by rules
- Zone profile: Home favorite 0-5% edge shows a supportive track record — below 50%, suggesting unfavorable spot
- Neutral environment: 74.7F, 8.4 mph tailwind, 1.034x weather multiplier — typical ballpark conditions
Risk Factors
- Model behind market: When our edge is negative, it signals model failure, not opportunity
- Both teams fighting for position: Neither team has clinched; both at full intensity
- No informational advantage exists: Market is efficiently pricing this matchup
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAA 50.2%
-1.2 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.2 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.