FINAL: SD 3 — HOU 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.5 - HOU 3.8 (HOU at 50.4% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
SD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDHOU
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SD
245
Projected
SD 3.5 — HOU 3.8
Actual
SD 3 — HOU 2
Pick Results
HOU @ SD NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph20% whiff
CH23%87 mph34% whiff
SL14%86 mph25% whiff
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH28%86 mph27% whiff
SI28%93 mph13% whiff
ST20%82 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
81°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.994
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.42ERA
4.07FIP
9.29K/9
3.68BB/9
1.19WHIP
SD
3.27ERA
3.75FIP
9.46K/9
3.67BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-14.9% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-6.6% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+5.4% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 4.5
+5.2% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-4.6% EV
-208
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-116
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
42.1% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
40.0% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
61.5%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.331 | Barrel: 17.7% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis Campusano SD28.3%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.90x
Ty France SD26.0%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Peter Lambert | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 50.4%
-4.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-4.6 pts
Total
8.0
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.