HOU vs SEA prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.2 - HOU 4.0. SEA is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SEA
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
HOU
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAHOU
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUSEA W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.7% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.2 — HOU 4.0
Actual
SEA 0 — HOU 7
Pick Results
Logan Gilbert UNDER 6.5 Ksk_propsWIN+1.20u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph23% whiff
ST26%81 mph37% whiff
CH16%85 mph29% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL25%87 mph35% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
67°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.72ERA
4.14FIP
9.12K/9
3.61BB/9
1.23WHIP
SEA
4.13ERA
4.19FIP
8.71K/9
3.37BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.0
+8.2% EV
-119
F5_ML HOME
-7.2% EV
-156
NRFI NRFI
-6.1% EV
-122
NRFI YRFI
-5.2% EV
-104
F5 OVER 3.5
-3.9% EV
-152
F5_ML AWAY
-2.8% EV
+124
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.1 runs
37.1% win
SEA F5
2.5 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Brice Matthews HOU27.1%
ISO: 0.100 | Barrel: 6.6% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x
Dominic Canzone SEA26.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Cristian Javier | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cristian Javier
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Enyel De Los Santos RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SEA8 injured
Andres Munoz RPDAY-TO-DAY
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 54.6%
-2.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-2.0 pts
Total
7.0
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.