FINAL: SF 4 — HOU 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SF 3.8 - HOU 4.6 (HOU at 55.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFHOU
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUSF W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.5% (3,251 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.8 — HOU 4.6
Actual
SF 4 — HOU 1
Pick Results
HOU @ SF NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
61°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.041
12mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.41ERA
4.08FIP
9.28K/9
3.61BB/9
1.18WHIP
SF
4.75ERA
4.75FIP
7.18K/9
4.69BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-15.3% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
+11.7% EV
+150
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.4% EV
-111
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-7.9% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-6.4% EV
-179
ML HOME
+6.3% EV
+166
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.4 runs
43.0% win
SF F5
2.2 runs
40.9% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
57.0%
YRFI
43.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
63%
No HR
11%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: both starting pitchers are TBD for this game, making any model-derived edge (including the 6.3% SF home ML edge) fundamentally unreliable, compounded by an unusual cold/tailwind weather combination at Oracle Park.
Key Factors
- BOTH PITCHERS TBD: HOU and SF have no confirmed starters at time of analysis. Any model output here is essentially guessing at replacement-level arms.
- Weather: 61.3F (coldest game on slate) + 12.4mph wind blowing OUT is an atypical Oracle Park combination — usually cold + marine layer suppresses, but a strong tailwind can offset that for fly balls.
- Oracle Park's normal 0.88x park factor (suppressive) is complicated by the unusual wind pattern tonight, adding further uncertainty.
Risk Factors
- Automatic skip trigger: both starters unconfirmed.
- Weather anomaly (cold + tailwind) adds additional unpredictability layered on top of the pitcher uncertainty.
- Model-market ML disagreement (6.3%) cannot be trusted as a real edge without pitcher confirmation.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 55.1%
+0.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+0.9 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.