KC vs BOS prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 4.4 - KC 4.2. BOS is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
BOS
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
KC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSKC
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
246
BOS
246
Projected
BOS 4.4 — KC 4.2
Actual
BOS 4 — KC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Noah Cameron L
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%92 mph13% whiff
FC21%90 mph20% whiff
CH21%81 mph35% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%96 mph26% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
FC19%89 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
67°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.981
9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.89ERA
4.89FIP
7.83K/9
4.66BB/9
1.54WHIP
BOS
3.04ERA
3.29FIP
9.80K/9
2.96BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.3 runs
39.4% win
BOS F5
2.5 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.95
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Anthony Seigler 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.