LAA vs OAK prediction for September 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 6.3 - LAA 5.4. OAK is favored with a 62.6% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.7 total runs.
OAK
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
LAA
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKLAA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAA W4OAK W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.0% (4,023 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 6.3 — LAA 5.4
Actual
OAK 9 — LAA 7
Pick Results
Yusei Kikuchi UNDER 5.5 Ksk_propsWIN+0.67u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%96 mph15% whiff
SL25%87 mph24% whiff
FS17%87 mph28% whiff
Brady Basso L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CU18%78 mph38% whiff
SL15%84 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
79°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.13ERA
4.05FIP
9.48K/9
3.83BB/9
1.35WHIP
OAK
4.94ERA
4.37FIP
9.51K/9
4.62BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-15.8% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
-14.3% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+14.0% EV
-103
ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.2% EV
+149
F5 OVER 5.5
+8.7% EV
-102
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
3.1 runs
35.9% win
OAK F5
4.0 runs
52.6% win
F5 Total
7.1
NRFI
40.9%
YRFI
59.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.53
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.4
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
4%
Shea Langeliers OAK30.0%
ISO: 0.291 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Jose Siri LAA25.7%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 8.6% | vs Brady Basso | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Zack Gelof OAK25.3%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Brady Basso
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Kyren Paris 2B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
J.T. Ginn SP60-DAY-IL
Max Muncy 3B10-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 62.6%
+2.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.3 pts
Total
9.5
+14.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.